PropPlayers › WR › NE
Should I start Efton Chism III in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · NE vs BUF · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims says sit Efton Chism III in Week 4 unless Mack Hollins is out: as a limited-role WR his median is 0.8 half-PPR points, with a significant role in 1% of our 10,000 simulations.
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | WR123 | Sit | 1.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Half-PPR | WR124 | Sit | 0.8 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| Standard | WR126 | Sit | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 |
Game environment: NE market-implied team total 21.5 vs 28.5 for BUF (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (2 games): 6% target share, 0% carry share, 22% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Zachariah Branch (WR122), Xavier Gipson (WR123), Malachi Corley (WR125), Tutu Atwell (WR126).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings