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Should I start Joe Burrow in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · CIN vs JAC · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Joe Burrow QB11 in half-PPR for Week 4 (CIN vs JAC): start in a 12-team league. Median 16.8 points, floor 8.8 (p10), ceiling 26.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB11 (median 16.8). Standard: QB11 (median 16.8).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB11 | Start | 16.8 | 8.8 | 26.6 |
| Half-PPR | QB11 | Start | 16.8 | 8.8 | 26.6 |
| Standard | QB11 | Start | 16.8 | 8.8 | 26.6 |
Game environment: CIN market-implied team total 27.2 vs 24.8 for JAC (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 9% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Joe Burrow vs similar QBs
- Joe Burrow or Tyson Bagent? Joe Burrow outscores Tyson Bagent in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Joe Burrow or Marcus Mariota? Joe Burrow outscores Marcus Mariota in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Joe Burrow or Deshaun Watson? Joe Burrow outscores Deshaun Watson in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott? Joe Burrow outscores Dak Prescott in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud? Joe Burrow outscores C.J. Stroud in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Joe Burrow or Brock Purdy? Joe Burrow outscores Brock Purdy in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Marcus Mariota (QB9), Deshaun Watson (QB10), Dak Prescott (QB12), C.J. Stroud (QB13).
Compare Joe Burrow with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings