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Should I start Justin Herbert in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · LAC vs SEA · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Justin Herbert QB20 in half-PPR for Week 4 (LAC vs SEA): sit in a 12-team league. Median 15.1 points, floor 8.0 (p10), ceiling 23.0 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB20 (median 15.1). Standard: QB20 (median 15.1).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB20 | Sit | 15.1 | 8.0 | 23.0 |
| Half-PPR | QB20 | Sit | 15.1 | 8.0 | 23.0 |
| Standard | QB20 | Sit | 15.1 | 8.0 | 23.0 |
Game environment: LAC market-implied team total 17.8 vs 24.8 for SEA (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 16% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Trevor Lawrence (QB18), Matthew Stafford (QB19), Jalon Daniels (QB21), Daniel Jones (QB22).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings