What is Sterling Shepard's floor and ceiling in Week 4?

Half-PPR: floor 0.0, median 0.6, ceiling 2.3. PPR: 0.0 / 1.1 / 3.0. Standard: 0.0 / 0.1 / 1.5. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations.

Players › WR › NYJ

Should I start Sterling Shepard in Week 4?

Week 4, 2026 · NYJ vs CHI · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM ET

SIT Limited role

PropSims says sit Sterling Shepard in Week 4 unless Garrett Wilson is out: as a limited-role WR his median is 0.6 half-PPR points, with a significant role in under 1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Scoring	Rank	Call	Median	Ceiling p85
PPR	WR127	Sit	1.1	3.0
Half-PPR	WR130	Sit	0.6	2.3
Standard	WR130	Sit	0.1	1.5

Game environment: NYJ market-implied team total 19.8 vs 23.2 for CHI (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (1 games): 3% target share, 0% carry share, 45% snap rate (nflverse).

Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Tom Kennedy (WR128), J. Michael Sturdivant (WR129), Malik Benson (WR131), Devontez Walker (WR132).

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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings