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Should I start Alvin Kamara in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · NO vs ATL · kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Alvin Kamara RB18 in half-PPR for Week 4 (NO vs ATL): start in a 12-team league. Median 9.4 points, floor 3.4 (p10), ceiling 17.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB18 (median 11.1). Standard: RB19 (median 7.7).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB18 | Start | 11.1 | 4.3 | 19.3 |
| Half-PPR | RB18 | Start | 9.4 | 3.4 | 17.3 |
| Standard | RB19 | Start | 7.7 | 2.4 | 15.3 |
Game environment: NO market-implied team total 24.8 vs 23.2 for ATL (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (2 games): 11% target share, 33% carry share, 31% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Alvin Kamara vs similar RBs
- Alvin Kamara or Bucky Irving? Alvin Kamara outscores Bucky Irving in 41% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Alvin Kamara or D'Andre Swift? Alvin Kamara outscores D'Andre Swift in 43% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Alvin Kamara or Jeremiyah Love? Alvin Kamara outscores Jeremiyah Love in 45% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins? Alvin Kamara outscores Quinshon Judkins in 53% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Alvin Kamara or Braelon Allen? Alvin Kamara outscores Braelon Allen in 57% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Alvin Kamara or Emanuel Wilson? Alvin Kamara outscores Emanuel Wilson in 57% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): D'Andre Swift (RB16), Jeremiyah Love (RB17), Quinshon Judkins (RB19), Braelon Allen (RB20).
Compare Alvin Kamara with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings