PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bhayshul Tuten or J.K. Dobbins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bhayshul Tuten: JAC vs CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Bhayshul Tuten edges J.K. Dobbins, outscoring him in 52.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Bhayshul Tuten (p10 2.8). Need upside? Bhayshul Tuten (p85 15.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bhayshul Tuten | 54% | RB23 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 16.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 46% | RB31 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 15.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Bhayshul Tuten | 53% | RB22 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 15.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 47% | RB24 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 15.3 | |
| Standard | Bhayshul Tuten | 52% | RB22 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 14.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 48% | RB23 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 15.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.