PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Braelon Allen or Emanuel Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Braelon Allen: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Emanuel Wilson: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Braelon Allen edges Emanuel Wilson, outscoring him in 50.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Braelon Allen (52%). Standard: Emanuel Wilson (51%). Need a safe floor? Emanuel Wilson (p10 2.1). Need upside? Emanuel Wilson (p85 17.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Braelon Allen | 52% | RB20 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 17.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 48% | RB26 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 17.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Braelon Allen | 51% | RB20 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 16.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 49% | RB21 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 17.0 | |
| Standard | Braelon Allen | 49% | RB20 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 16.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 51% | RB18 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 16.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.