PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chase Brown or Javonte Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Javonte Williams: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chase Brown edges Javonte Williams, outscoring him in 51.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Chase Brown (p10 4.5). Need upside? Chase Brown (p85 21.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chase Brown | 51% | RB13 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 23.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 49% | RB15 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 22.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Chase Brown | 51% | RB13 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 21.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 49% | RB14 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 20.9 | |
| Standard | Chase Brown | 50% | RB13 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
| Javonte Williams | 50% | RB14 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 19.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.