PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chuba Hubbard or Chase Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chuba Hubbard: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chuba Hubbard edges Chase Brown, outscoring him in 51.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Chase Brown (50%). Standard: Chuba Hubbard (54%). Need a safe floor? Chuba Hubbard (p10 4.7). Need upside? Chuba Hubbard (p85 22.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chuba Hubbard | 50% | RB14 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 23.5 |
| Chase Brown | 50% | RB13 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 23.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Chuba Hubbard | 52% | RB12 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 22.2 |
| Chase Brown | 48% | RB13 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 21.6 | |
| Standard | Chuba Hubbard | 54% | RB12 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 21.1 |
| Chase Brown | 46% | RB13 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.