PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Dalton Kincaid or Zach Ertz: who should I start in Week 4?
· Dalton Kincaid: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Zach Ertz: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Dalton Kincaid edges Zach Ertz, outscoring him in 52.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Dalton Kincaid (p10 1.7). Need upside? Zach Ertz (p85 15.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 52% | TE8 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 18.2 |
| Zach Ertz | 48% | TE10 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 18.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 52% | TE8 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 15.4 |
| Zach Ertz | 48% | TE9 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 15.6 | |
| Standard | Dalton Kincaid | 53% | TE5 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 12.4 |
| Zach Ertz | 47% | TE9 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 13.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.