PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey: who should I start in Week 4?
· Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Christian McCaffrey: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Start Derrick Henry over Christian McCaffrey in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 55% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (59%). Need a safe floor? Derrick Henry (p10 6.9). Need upside? Derrick Henry (p85 27.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Derrick Henry | 51% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.1 | 27.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49% | RB9 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 27.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Derrick Henry | 55% | RB6 | 15.3 | 6.9 | 27.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 45% | RB9 | 14.0 | 4.8 | 25.6 | |
| Standard | Derrick Henry | 59% | RB5 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 26.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 41% | RB9 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 23.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.