PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
DJ Moore or DK Metcalf: who should I start in Week 4?
· DJ Moore: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · DK Metcalf: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: DJ Moore edges DK Metcalf, outscoring him in 50.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: DK Metcalf (51%). Standard: DJ Moore (52%). Need a safe floor? DK Metcalf (p10 2.1). Need upside? DJ Moore (p85 15.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | DJ Moore | 49% | WR34 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 18.3 |
| DK Metcalf | 51% | WR32 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 17.3 | |
| Half-PPR | DJ Moore | 50% | WR33 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 15.8 |
| DK Metcalf | 50% | WR34 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 14.5 | |
| Standard | DJ Moore | 52% | WR31 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 13.4 |
| DK Metcalf | 48% | WR34 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 11.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.