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Start/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE

George Kittle or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?

· George Kittle: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET

START GEORGE KITTLECOIN FLIP

Coin flip in Week 4: George Kittle edges T.J. Hockenson, outscoring him in 50.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: T.J. Hockenson (50%). Standard: George Kittle (53%). Need a safe floor? T.J. Hockenson (p10 1.6). Need upside? George Kittle (p85 15.4).

ScoringPlayerWins H2HRankMedianFloor p10Ceiling p85
PPRGeorge Kittle50%TE128.01.618.0
T.J. Hockenson50%TE118.12.416.4
Half-PPRGeorge Kittle51%TE106.31.115.4
T.J. Hockenson49%TE125.91.613.3
StandardGeorge Kittle53%TE104.40.613.1
T.J. Hockenson47%TE133.70.810.3

Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.

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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.