PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
James Cook III or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?
· James Cook III: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: James Cook III edges Derrick Henry, outscoring him in 50.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: James Cook III (51%). Standard: Derrick Henry (51%). Need a safe floor? James Cook III (p10 7.1). Need upside? James Cook III (p85 27.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | James Cook III | 51% | RB6 | 16.4 | 7.6 | 28.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 49% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.1 | 27.6 | |
| Half-PPR | James Cook III | 50% | RB5 | 15.6 | 7.1 | 27.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 50% | RB6 | 15.3 | 6.9 | 27.2 | |
| Standard | James Cook III | 49% | RB6 | 14.7 | 6.6 | 26.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 51% | RB5 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 26.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.