PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Jonathan Taylor: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Jonathan Taylor: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jaylen Warren edges Jonathan Taylor, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Jaylen Warren (51%). Standard: Jonathan Taylor (51%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 7.1). Need upside? Jonathan Taylor (p85 26.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 51% | RB5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 27.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 49% | RB7 | 16.3 | 7.4 | 27.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 51% | RB7 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 25.1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 49% | RB8 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 26.2 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 49% | RB8 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 23.2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 51% | RB7 | 13.7 | 5.8 | 24.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.