PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Jaylen Warren over Kyren Williams in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 7.1). Need upside? Jaylen Warren (p85 25.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 57% | RB5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 27.0 |
| Kyren Williams | 43% | RB10 | 14.6 | 5.9 | 25.9 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 56% | RB7 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 25.1 |
| Kyren Williams | 44% | RB10 | 13.4 | 5.3 | 24.6 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 55% | RB8 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 23.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 45% | RB10 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 23.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.