PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Nico Collins or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
· Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Nico Collins edges Tetairoa McMillan, outscoring him in 52.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Nico Collins (p10 3.2). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 22.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Nico Collins | 52% | WR14 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 25.4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR16 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 23.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Nico Collins | 52% | WR13 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 22.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR16 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 20.5 | |
| Standard | Nico Collins | 52% | WR12 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 18.8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR15 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 17.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.