PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Saquon Barkley or David Montgomery: who should I start in Week 4?
· Saquon Barkley: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · David Montgomery: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Saquon Barkley edges David Montgomery, outscoring him in 52.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Saquon Barkley (p10 2.3). Need upside? David Montgomery (p85 15.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Saquon Barkley | 52% | RB28 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 15.4 |
| David Montgomery | 48% | RB30 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 16.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Saquon Barkley | 52% | RB29 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 14.4 |
| David Montgomery | 48% | RB30 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 15.7 | |
| Standard | Saquon Barkley | 52% | RB26 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 13.3 |
| David Montgomery | 48% | RB29 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 14.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.