PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Stefon Diggs or Mike Evans: who should I start in Week 4?
· Stefon Diggs: WAS vs IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Mike Evans: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Stefon Diggs edges Mike Evans, outscoring him in 51.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Stefon Diggs (p10 3.0). Need upside? Stefon Diggs (p85 18.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Stefon Diggs | 51% | WR22 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 21.6 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR23 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 20.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Stefon Diggs | 51% | WR21 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 18.1 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR24 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 17.2 | |
| Standard | Stefon Diggs | 51% | WR26 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 14.6 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR27 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 13.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.