PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Tyson Bagent or Deshaun Watson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tyson Bagent: CHI vs NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Deshaun Watson: CLE vs PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tyson Bagent edges Deshaun Watson, outscoring him in 50.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Deshaun Watson (p10 9.5). Need upside? Tyson Bagent (p85 26.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyson Bagent | 50% | QB8 | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 50% | QB10 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 25.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyson Bagent | 50% | QB8 | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 50% | QB10 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 25.8 | |
| Standard | Tyson Bagent | 50% | QB8 | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 50% | QB10 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 25.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.