PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Zach Ertz or Harold Fannin Jr.: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zach Ertz: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Harold Fannin Jr.: CLE vs PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Zach Ertz edges Harold Fannin Jr., outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Harold Fannin Jr. (51%). Standard: Zach Ertz (52%). Need a safe floor? Harold Fannin Jr. (p10 1.8). Need upside? Zach Ertz (p85 15.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zach Ertz | 49% | TE10 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 18.0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 51% | TE9 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 16.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Zach Ertz | 51% | TE9 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 15.6 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 49% | TE11 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 13.3 | |
| Standard | Zach Ertz | 52% | TE9 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 13.3 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 48% | TE11 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.