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Should I start Jared Goff in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · DET vs CAR · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Jared Goff QB7 in half-PPR for Week 4 (DET vs CAR): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.0 points, floor 9.2 (p10), ceiling 26.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB7 (median 17.0). Standard: QB7 (median 17.0).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB7 | Start | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.6 |
| Half-PPR | QB7 | Start | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.6 |
| Standard | QB7 | Start | 17.0 | 9.2 | 26.6 |
Game environment: DET market-implied team total 27.2 vs 23.8 for CAR (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 9% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Jared Goff vs similar QBs
- Jared Goff or Lamar Jackson? Jared Goff outscores Lamar Jackson in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Jared Goff or Bryce Young? Jared Goff outscores Bryce Young in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Jared Goff or Drake Maye? Jared Goff outscores Drake Maye in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Jared Goff or Tyson Bagent? Jared Goff outscores Tyson Bagent in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Jared Goff or Marcus Mariota? Jared Goff outscores Marcus Mariota in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Jared Goff or Deshaun Watson? Jared Goff outscores Deshaun Watson in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Bryce Young (QB5), Drake Maye (QB6), Tyson Bagent (QB8), Marcus Mariota (QB9).
Compare Jared Goff with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings