PropPlayers › QB › NE
Should I start Drake Maye in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · NE vs BUF · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Drake Maye QB6 in half-PPR for Week 4 (NE vs BUF): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.5 points, floor 9.1 (p10), ceiling 26.4 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB6 (median 17.5). Standard: QB6 (median 17.5).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB6 | Start | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 |
| Half-PPR | QB6 | Start | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 |
| Standard | QB6 | Start | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 |
Game environment: NE market-implied team total 21.5 vs 28.5 for BUF (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 15% carry share, 94% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Drake Maye vs similar QBs
- Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes? Drake Maye outscores Patrick Mahomes in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson? Drake Maye outscores Lamar Jackson in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Drake Maye or Bryce Young? Drake Maye outscores Bryce Young in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Drake Maye or Jared Goff? Drake Maye outscores Jared Goff in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Drake Maye or Tyson Bagent? Drake Maye outscores Tyson Bagent in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Drake Maye or Marcus Mariota? Drake Maye outscores Marcus Mariota in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Lamar Jackson (QB4), Bryce Young (QB5), Jared Goff (QB7), Tyson Bagent (QB8).
Compare Drake Maye with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings