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Should I start Zay Flowers in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · BAL vs TEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Zay Flowers WR7 in half-PPR for Week 4 (BAL vs TEN): start in a 12-team league. Median 12.1 points, floor 4.0 (p10), ceiling 24.0 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: WR7 (median 14.6). Standard: WR6 (median 9.7).
Q Injury status at export time.
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | WR7 | Start | 14.6 | 5.1 | 27.7 |
| Half-PPR | WR7 | Start | 12.1 | 4.0 | 24.0 |
| Standard | WR6 | Start | 9.7 | 2.7 | 20.5 |
Game environment: BAL market-implied team total 27.0 vs 15.5 for TEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (2 games): 28% target share, 1% carry share, 31% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Zay Flowers vs similar WRs
- Zay Flowers or Amon-Ra St. Brown? Zay Flowers outscores Amon-Ra St. Brown in 46% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Zay Flowers or Garrett Wilson? Zay Flowers outscores Garrett Wilson in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison? Zay Flowers outscores Jordan Addison in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Zay Flowers or Puka Nacua? Zay Flowers outscores Puka Nacua in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Zay Flowers or Josh Downs? Zay Flowers outscores Josh Downs in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Zay Flowers or CeeDee Lamb? Zay Flowers outscores CeeDee Lamb in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Garrett Wilson (WR5), Jordan Addison (WR6), Puka Nacua (WR8), Josh Downs (WR9).
Compare Zay Flowers with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings