PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Garrett Wilson or Zay Flowers: who should I start in Week 4?
· Garrett Wilson: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Garrett Wilson edges Zay Flowers, outscoring him in 52.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Garrett Wilson (56%). Standard: Zay Flowers (53%). Need a safe floor? Garrett Wilson (p10 5.7). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 24.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Garrett Wilson | 56% | WR5 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 27.5 |
| Zay Flowers | 44% | WR7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 27.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Garrett Wilson | 52% | WR5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 22.1 |
| Zay Flowers | 48% | WR7 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 24.0 | |
| Standard | Garrett Wilson | 47% | WR10 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 16.9 |
| Zay Flowers | 53% | WR6 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 20.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.