PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Zay Flowers or Josh Downs: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Josh Downs: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Zay Flowers edges Josh Downs, outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Zay Flowers (p10 4.0). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 24.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zay Flowers | 51% | WR7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 27.7 |
| Josh Downs | 49% | WR9 | 14.4 | 4.9 | 27.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Zay Flowers | 52% | WR7 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 24.0 |
| Josh Downs | 48% | WR9 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 23.6 | |
| Standard | Zay Flowers | 53% | WR6 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 20.5 |
| Josh Downs | 47% | WR8 | 9.0 | 2.1 | 20.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.