PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Aaron Jones Sr. or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?
· Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Derrick Henry in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (59%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Aaron Jones Sr. (p10 7.2). Need upside? Aaron Jones Sr. (p85 31.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Aaron Jones Sr. | 59% | RB3 | 19.5 | 8.2 | 33.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 41% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.1 | 27.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Aaron Jones Sr. | 57% | RB3 | 18.0 | 7.2 | 31.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 43% | RB6 | 15.3 | 6.9 | 27.2 | |
| Standard | Aaron Jones Sr. | 54% | RB3 | 16.6 | 6.1 | 30.0 |
| Derrick Henry | 46% | RB5 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 26.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.