PropPlayers › RB › MIN
Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · MIN vs MIA · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Aaron Jones Sr. RB3 in half-PPR for Week 4 (MIN vs MIA): start in a 12-team league. Median 18.0 points, floor 7.2 (p10), ceiling 31.7 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB3 (median 19.5). Standard: RB3 (median 16.6).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB3 | Start | 19.5 | 8.2 | 33.4 |
| Half-PPR | RB3 | Start | 18.0 | 7.2 | 31.7 |
| Standard | RB3 | Start | 16.6 | 6.1 | 30.0 |
Game environment: MIN market-implied team total 24.2 vs 14.2 for MIA (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 9% target share, 65% carry share, 69% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Aaron Jones Sr. vs similar RBs
- Aaron Jones Sr. or Jahmyr Gibbs? Aaron Jones Sr. outscores Jahmyr Gibbs in 39% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Aaron Jones Sr. or Bijan Robinson? Aaron Jones Sr. outscores Bijan Robinson in 41% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Aaron Jones Sr. or Kenneth Walker III? Aaron Jones Sr. outscores Kenneth Walker III in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Aaron Jones Sr. or James Cook III? Aaron Jones Sr. outscores James Cook III in 57% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Aaron Jones Sr. or Derrick Henry? Aaron Jones Sr. outscores Derrick Henry in 57% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1), Bijan Robinson (RB2), Kenneth Walker III (RB4), James Cook III (RB5).
Compare Aaron Jones Sr. with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings