PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Aaron Jones Sr. or Kenneth Walker III: who should I start in Week 4?
· Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Kenneth Walker III: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Aaron Jones Sr. edges Kenneth Walker III, outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Aaron Jones Sr. (p10 7.2). Need upside? Aaron Jones Sr. (p85 31.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Aaron Jones Sr. | 50% | RB3 | 19.5 | 8.2 | 33.4 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 50% | RB4 | 19.4 | 8.5 | 32.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Aaron Jones Sr. | 52% | RB3 | 18.0 | 7.2 | 31.7 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 48% | RB4 | 17.4 | 7.2 | 29.7 | |
| Standard | Aaron Jones Sr. | 53% | RB3 | 16.6 | 6.1 | 30.0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 47% | RB4 | 15.4 | 5.8 | 27.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.