PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
CeeDee Lamb or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?
· CeeDee Lamb: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: CeeDee Lamb edges Nico Collins, outscoring him in 52.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? CeeDee Lamb (p10 3.9). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 22.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR10 | 14.2 | 5.3 | 26.0 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR14 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 25.4 | |
| Half-PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR10 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 21.9 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR13 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 22.0 | |
| Standard | CeeDee Lamb | 52% | WR11 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 18.1 |
| Nico Collins | 48% | WR12 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 18.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.