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Should I start Lamar Jackson in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · BAL vs TEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Lamar Jackson QB4 in half-PPR for Week 4 (BAL vs TEN): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.7 points, floor 9.6 (p10), ceiling 27.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB4 (median 17.7). Standard: QB4 (median 17.7).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB4 | Start | 17.7 | 9.6 | 27.3 |
| Half-PPR | QB4 | Start | 17.7 | 9.6 | 27.3 |
| Standard | QB4 | Start | 17.7 | 9.6 | 27.3 |
Game environment: BAL market-implied team total 27.0 vs 15.5 for TEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 15% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Lamar Jackson vs similar QBs
- Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen? Lamar Jackson outscores Josh Allen in 36% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Lamar Jackson or Tyler Shough? Lamar Jackson outscores Tyler Shough in 42% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes? Lamar Jackson outscores Patrick Mahomes in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Lamar Jackson or Bryce Young? Lamar Jackson outscores Bryce Young in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Lamar Jackson or Drake Maye? Lamar Jackson outscores Drake Maye in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Lamar Jackson or Jared Goff? Lamar Jackson outscores Jared Goff in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Tyler Shough (QB2), Patrick Mahomes (QB3), Bryce Young (QB5), Drake Maye (QB6).
Compare Lamar Jackson with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings