PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Lamar Jackson or Drake Maye: who should I start in Week 4?
· Lamar Jackson: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Drake Maye: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Lamar Jackson edges Drake Maye, outscoring him in 51.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Lamar Jackson (p10 9.6). Need upside? Lamar Jackson (p85 27.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Lamar Jackson | 51% | QB4 | 17.7 | 9.6 | 27.3 |
| Drake Maye | 49% | QB6 | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Lamar Jackson | 51% | QB4 | 17.7 | 9.6 | 27.3 |
| Drake Maye | 49% | QB6 | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 | |
| Standard | Lamar Jackson | 51% | QB4 | 17.7 | 9.6 | 27.3 |
| Drake Maye | 49% | QB6 | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.