PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Chris Olave or Amon-Ra St. Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chris Olave edges Amon-Ra St. Brown, outscoring him in 51.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Chris Olave (p10 5.6). Need upside? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p85 25.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chris Olave | 52% | WR2 | 17.5 | 7.5 | 30.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 48% | WR4 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 30.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Chris Olave | 51% | WR2 | 13.9 | 5.6 | 25.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49% | WR4 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 25.8 | |
| Standard | Chris Olave | 51% | WR3 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 20.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49% | WR4 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 21.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.