PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Chris Olave: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Chris Olave in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (58%). Need a safe floor? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p10 6.0). Need upside? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p85 30.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 56% | WR1 | 19.6 | 7.9 | 35.0 |
| Chris Olave | 44% | WR2 | 17.5 | 7.5 | 30.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 57% | WR1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 30.2 |
| Chris Olave | 43% | WR2 | 13.9 | 5.6 | 25.1 | |
| Standard | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 58% | WR1 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 25.7 |
| Chris Olave | 42% | WR3 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 20.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.