What is Ja'Marr Chase's floor and ceiling in Week 4?

Half-PPR: floor 4.5, median 13.8, ceiling 27.5. PPR: 6.2 / 17.0 / 31.7. Standard: 2.6 / 10.5 / 23.3. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations.

Players › WR › CIN

Should I start Ja'Marr Chase in Week 4?

Week 4, 2026 · CIN vs JAC · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM ET

START

PropSims ranks Ja'Marr Chase WR3 in half-PPR for Week 4 (CIN vs JAC): start in a 12-team league. Median 13.8 points, floor 4.5 (p10), ceiling 27.5 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: WR3 (median 17.0). Standard: WR2 (median 10.5).

Scoring	Rank	Call	Median	Floor p10	Ceiling p85
PPR	WR3	Start	17.0	6.2	31.7
Half-PPR	WR3	Start	13.8	4.5	27.5
Standard	WR2	Start	10.5	2.6	23.3

Game environment: CIN market-implied team total 27.2 vs 24.8 for JAC (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 24% target share, 0% carry share, 94% snap rate (nflverse).

Close calls: Ja'Marr Chase vs similar WRs

Ja'Marr Chase or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Ja'Marr Chase outscores Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 44% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ja'Marr Chase or Chris Olave? Ja'Marr Chase outscores Chris Olave in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ja'Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown? Ja'Marr Chase outscores Amon-Ra St. Brown in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ja'Marr Chase or Garrett Wilson? Ja'Marr Chase outscores Garrett Wilson in 54% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ja'Marr Chase or Jordan Addison? Ja'Marr Chase outscores Jordan Addison in 54% of simulated games (half-PPR).

Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1), Chris Olave (WR2), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR4), Garrett Wilson (WR5).

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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings